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THAT statistic.

They said it again:

“We can’t drill our way out of this.  We produce 25 percent of the world’s oil, but we only have 3 percent of the world’s oil reserve.”

I’ve heard this from Hillary, Pelosi, Obama and recently at the veep debate, I heard it from Biden.

It is a talking point.  It is a talking point in the sense that everybody says it.  Nobody thinks about it. It is not a thinking point.

But like all statistics, it says something very specific, but it doesn’t say what they say it says.

What does it say?

It compares our production to the world’s production.  They produce three times what we produce (25% vs. 75%)

It compares our reserves to the world’s reserve.  They have about thirty time the reserve that we do (3% vs about 90%).

All this really means is that the rest of the world has a heck of a lot of oil.  Much more than we do.

What doesn’t it say?

It doesn’t compare anybody’s production to anybody’s reserve.

It doesn’t say anything about what how much we need to become energy independent. Specifically, it doesn’t say anything about how much we would need to “drill our way out of this.”

I am not saying we can or can’t drill our way out.  But they are offering this statistic as proof that we can’t and we just can’t conclude that from this statistic.

What can we conclude?

We can conclude that we would run out of oil way before the rest of the world does.

What can we not conclude?

We don’t know from this statistic WHEN we would run out of oil. Since there is no comparison between anyone’s reserve and their production, we don’t know if we will run out in 10 years, 30 years, or 1000 years.  We can conclude that we will run out first, but if we will run out in 1000 years, knowing that we will run out first doesn’t really matter that much, does it?

We also don’t know from this statistic how much we can increase production.  Since there is no comparison between our production and our reserve, we could, conceivably,  double our production.  We might run out sooner, but since we don’t know from this statistic whether that would be in 15 years or 500 years, this statistic doesn’t preclude increasing production.

Therefore, we don’t know from this statistic whether we can drill our way out of this or not.  It doesn’t tell us by how much we can increase production and it doesn’t tell us how much we would need to increase production to drill our way out.

I am not offering statistics that say we can drill our way out.  I’m sure the numbers are out there and smarter people than me can figure this out.  But I know this statistic—this talking point—doesn’t make that case.

The next time I see this statistic in the context of a debate, I want the opponent to really take them to task.  Don’t let them get away with using this shabby statistic.  If they can prove—really prove—that we can’t drill our way out, make them prove it.

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25 percent of apples and 3 percent of oranges

There are three kinds of liars, we are told, liars, statisticians and democrats.

How many times have you heard something like, "We can't drill our way out of this.  We have 3% of the worlds oil reserves, but we consume 25 percent of production."

Apples and oranges.

The oil reserves are much larger than the amount that is produced every year.  If this wasn't true, then the world would run out of oil within one year. In fact, since we've been drilling for a century, and expect to be drilling for quite a while longer, I would say the reserves are vastly greater than annual production.  It may even be true (it probably is) that 3% of the worlds reserves is much, much greater than 25 percent of the oil production.

This is not to say that we can drill our way out of this, but the assertion often made by the democrats is that we could only ever produce one eight of our oil consumption (3%/24%) is not supported by the statistic.  Saying that we have one thirtieth of the worlds reserves doesn't prove that we can't increase our production to 50% or 80% of our consumption.

World reserves are irrelevant.  US reserves are relevant only to the extent that they inform how much we might increase production.   The only truly relevant numbers are our consumption, our current production and how much we might be able to produce if we were able to explore on oil fields where we're currently prevented from exploring.

So until they start comparing consumption to current and potential production, we need to call them on it every single time until their apples and oranges comparison is seen as the statisticians lie that it truly is.

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Obamanomics

Just the idea that the MSM is putting out that bad economic news favors Obama is incredulous.

The simple idea that to decrease price you need to increase supply is beyond the liberal democrats in general and Obama in particular.

The idea that we can't get oil from drilling until five years from now, and, therefore, it won't help today, but research into alternatives that are either 10, 20 years away or completely infeasible makes a lie any claim that Obama has to economic expertise.

Then there is health care. He seems to think that coming up with billions of dollars to pay for everyone to be insured will solve the problem.  But health care is a scarce resource.  Too much money chasing too few goods makes the price skyrocket.

The only way to increase the availability of health care is to increase the supply.  We need to increase the numbers of doctors, nurses and hospitals in this country.  What Obama wants to do will exacerbate the situation further.  If we control the price (though not the cost) of health care, somewhere along the line, doctors will be paid as salaried employees. And pretty low salaries at that.

I don't doubt there are many doctors who go into the business for altruistic reasons, just as I'm sure people go into teaching for altruistic reasons. But to ask someone to spend that much time and money getting a medical license, and then pay them very low wages, will test the altruism of even the most well meaning pre-med.

If we try to have government control healthcare, we will have mediocre care for everyone, with month-long waiting lists for medical care, and days-long care for emergency treatment.  Say good bye to innovation.

We could, like the UK, go overseas to get the doctors we would need.  But the solution for the medical personnel shortage in the UK merely exacerbated the security problem there, with some of the newly imported medical personnel being implicated in some of the terrorist attacks.

Let's make sure everyone can buy a house.  If they can't afford it later on, we'll have the government buy up all the bad mortgages and latter we can accuse the people we forced to lend money of lending money to people who can't afford houses.

We don't like companies taking jobs overseas?  Let's increase their taxes and that will make them want to bring the jobs back (sarcasm).  Obama will stop companies from taking jobs overseas.  He'll make the whole company relocate overseas.

And of course increasing the taxes on big corporations will cause them to create more jobs (more sarcasm!).  Eating into the revenues of big corporations simply means higher prices and fewer jobs.

Let's increase the capital gains tax.  Obama knows it won't result in increase revenues.  He has admitted exactly that.  He just wants to do it out of fairness.  Can anyone explain that to me?

Tax cuts for the middle class!  Who cares that many of the people that Obama wants to help with his tax cuts already pay little or no taxes.  Let's give them a refundable credit.  Never mind that this is nothing but enforced charity (the lowest kind, according to Maimonides).  But of course, we can't call it charity.  Proud American's don't take charity.  Handouts from the government are another matter.  Besides, if it really were charity (instead of a government program) we might actually have a large percentage of the money actually getting to the people that need it.  We can't have that.  Not in Obamaland.

I don't care how many Clinton aides Obama has around him.  The only thing to recommend them is that they happened to be working in the government during the tech bubble.  If anything, that disqualifies them from having any knowledge of economics since their views are skewed by having a growing (or bubbling) economy during their tenure.  Anything they did worked.  Experience is about knowing what won't work.  These people know nothing of that.

We are told that he was a great student in school.  I guess he never took Econ 101.
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Reponse to Obama

From WashingtonPost.com Convention Update: (my responses are not from WashintonPost.com)

Advance Excerpts: Obama's Speech
The Obama campaign has released advance excerpts of his remarks, "The Promise of America," set for delivery later tonight. He is expected to say:

"Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story - of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren't well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

<Of course, if they believed in America, you might expect they would raise him in America, not Indonesia>

"It is that promise that has always set this country apart - that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

<Nothing here about government handouts.  Interesting.  Check out Michael Medved>

"It is why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women - students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors -- found the courage to keep it alive.

<Again, the American Dream is about the American people, their hard work and courage, not the government giving you what you want.>

"We meet at one of those defining moments - a moment when our nation is at war,

<We've been at war for quite a while.  Whether you start counting from 9-11, the USS Cole, the African Embassies, the Lebanese Embassy bombing, the first bombing of the twin towers or even back to Jefferson and the Barbary Pirates, we've been at war for quite a while.  The only difference is that now, we have been fighting back.  Finally.>

 our economy is in turmoil,

<Two reasons for our economic problems.  Energy, caused by our inability to drill at home and to build refineries and not to mention nuclear power plants, and Housing, caused by our well intentioned efforts to make sure everyone can afford to buy their own home.  Well, not everyone can afford to buy a home and what happens when you buy a home you can't afford?  You lose your house.  The effect of this is overstated.  The rate of foreclosures is not that much higher than before.  The rest is panic and misguided consumer sentiment.  Who kept us from drilling, building refineries, building nuclear power plants and getting people buying homes they can't afford?  This is when the American Dream took a left turn.  Well, the republicans may have cooperated, but that is republicans acting like democrats.  The answer to that is NOT more democrats.>


and the American promise has been threatened once more.

<The American promise is being threatened by an appealing radical many people think can be president>

"Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less.

<I like the quantification here.  More out of work from when?  From the unsustainable technobubble of the 90's?  From the depression?  Whatever Obama wants to say, he can't refute the fact that we are still at an enviable 5% unemployment.  The Dems are talking about our economic mess, but no one is giving any numbers other than comparing where we are now to the technobubble.>

More of you have lost your homes and more are watching your home values plummet.

<How many people have lost their homes when they bought homes they could actually afford?  If you buy a home you can't afford, you are going to lose it.  The rest is panic.>

More of you have cars you can't afford to drive,

<Well, I could never understand the infatuation with huge SUVs, the rest is fuel prices.  See above.>

credit card bills you can't afford to pay

<Well who is holding a gun to your head?  If you can't afford it, don't buy it. And don't EVER keep a balance on your credit cards.>

and tuition that is beyond your reach.

<I went to a state school.  Where did Obama go to school?  It didn't seem that skyrocketing tuition was beyond his reach.  But of course, he is better that the average man.>

"These challenges are not all of government's making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed presidency of George W. Bush.

<The response is more damaging that the challenges.  The "failure to respond" may be noted by history as some of Bush's greatest actions.>

"America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this."

<True.  But we are also a better country than the socialist country Obama dreams of.>

***

"This moment - this election - is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive.

<And we will, as long as the government doesn't muck with it.>

Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third.

<Better a Bush third than a Carter second>

And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look just like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say: "Eight is enough."

<High flying rhetoric comes down crashing and burning with a reference to an old sitcom.  Obama and I are remarkably alike in age, and I also used to watch "Eight is Enough."  But not even Dick van Patten ever actually said, "Eight is enough.">

"Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect.

<We are going to be hearing this until next November.  There is as much sincerity in this as in the Clintons' declarations that Obama is qualified to be President.>

And next week, we'll also hear about those occasions when he's broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

<This has never endeared McCain to republicans.  But at least he HAS been bipartisan.  The only claims that Obama has to bipartisanism is his work on the Ethics bill.  But, a) that assumes that ethics is not something democrats want (they finally admit it) and b) this bipartisanship ended when Obama was taken aside by party leaders and told not to cooperate.  After that, he didn't.  How disingenuous is it to claim to have gone against your party when you worked on something but then you quit when you were told to by your party>

"But the record's clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time.

<Well, this is a good thing, except that some issues in that missing ten percent were biggies.>

Senator McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush was right more than ninety percent of the time?

<What does it say about judgment when whenever you say something substantial, you need to clarify your statement the next day.  Whose judgment would you prefer to emulate, Bush or Resko, Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers?>

I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to take a ten percent chance on change."

<I'm not even sure what this means.  But let me say something about change.  There is a scene in Stand and Deliver where Escalante is driving Pancho's car.  Pancho has decided to leave the calculus class so that he can work in his uncle's auto shop making real money.  Escalante asks Pancho where he should turn.  Excited and agitated, Pancho finally tells him turn right here.  They end up at a dead end.  Escalante tells him that that is his problem.  Always concerned about the next turn, never on the destination.  Change for change's sake is bad.  Movies and TV shows agree with common sense.  People who want a change because "Things couldn't get any worse," find out to their misery that they always can.>
***

"You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country.

<Yes and no.  When you measure progress by what people who work hard can achieve, as when they talk about the personal histories of Mr. and Mrs. Obama and Biden and the Clintons, then that is exactly the measures republicans would use.  When they talk about what the government should do for people, then, yes, they do have a different measure.  Trouble is, why are they applying the republican measure to themselves and a different measure for everyone else?>

"We measure progress by how many people can find a job that pays the mortgage; whether you can put away a little extra money at the end of each month so that you can someday watch your child receive her diploma.

<Well, this sounds pretty good.>

We measure progress in the 23 million new jobs that were created when Bill Clinton was President - when the average American family saw its income go up $7,500 instead of down $2,000 like it has under George Bush.

<One word.  Technobubble.  What use is creating 23 million jobs if they are bound to disappear BEFORE the end of your term?  Obama may find it very hard to replicate the 23 million new jobs unless he can invent a new internet.  Hey, if Bill and Al can do it, why not Obama?  And the millions of new jobs created under George Bush will be around for a long time.  Longer if Obama doesn't get his hands on them.>

"We measure the strength of our economy not by the number of billionaires we have or the profits of the Fortune 500, but by whether someone with a good idea can take a risk and start a business, or whether the waitress who lives on tips can take a day off to look after a sick kid without losing her job - an economy that honors the dignity of work.

<You don't honor the dignity of work by paying people a living wage not to work.  You don't honor the dignity of work by giving people almost as much money for not working as for working.  You don't honor the dignity of work by taking money away from those who are working to pay for someone in the company half of their salary because they choose not to work so they can bond with their new baby.   You don't honor the dignity of work by taking a bigger tax bite so people will have less take home pay for the same work.>

"The fundamentals we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great - a promise that is the only reason I am standing here tonight."

<Well he is standing there because of a superb speech he gave at the convention four years ago, but never mind.>
***

"That's the promise we need to keep. That's the change we need right now. So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President.

<That would be nice (if you excuse the expression) for a change.>

"Change means a tax code that doesn't reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it.

<Lobbying is not strictly a republican sin.  And, although many people would like to change this, Don Quixote would look at this windmill and give up.  Certainly the freshman senator from Illinois won't be able to do this.>

"Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.

<So the companies will give up taking jobs overseas and move there altogether to avoid the increased tax burden that Obama is promising.  Net result:  fewer jobs in America>

"I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.

<Of course during the primaries, after being told that increasing capital gains taxes does not result in an increase in revenue, Obama said that he would increase capital gains taxes anyway, not out of a need for revenue, but as a matter of fairness.  I should be pleased that he wants to eliminate certain capital gains taxes for some companies, but a) this is probably one of those promises (preceded by flowers and chocolates) that are promises you don't intend to keep.  In any case by the time small businesses and start-ups actually have capital gains, they probably would no longer be considered small businesses or start-ups>

"I will cut taxes - cut taxes - for 95% of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.

<First of all, for all of the spending he is promising and all of the tax cuts he wants us to believe he will propose, he will need additional revenue.  What he would discover (as all democrats need to discover) is the problem with taxing the top 5%.  Taxing the top 5% (beside the lack of fairness) doesn't get that much revenue because the tax base has so few people.  You can't expect the top 5% to provide all of the revenue that they will need for all that they want to provide for the remaining 95%,  95% is a lot.  5% is very little.  In addition to the fact that most middle class Americans are amazed to find out how low the income threshold for 5% really is.  Ultimately, the only way you can finance all that the democrats promise is to raise taxes on the middle class.  Which will Obama (and his democratic congress) give up first:  the promise not to tax the middle class, or their pet projects?>

"And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as President: in ten years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

<If he really meant this, he would allow drilling and he would allow us to build more nuclear power plants.  You can't do this with everything else alone.>

"Washington has been talking about our oil addiction for the last thirty years, and John McCain has been there for twenty-six of them. In that time, he's said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Senator McCain took office.

<The last thirty years (1978-2008) includes the aftermath of the Arab Oil embargo, two years of a Carter presidency, the entire presidency of Bill Clinton and many years of democratic controlled congresses.  Of course it is McCain's fault.  In referring to the amount of oil we import, we also have to consider how much more oil we are producing and how much more oil we are consuming.  Our economy has grown tremendously.  Our production and consumption of oil has skyrocketed.  The problem is that our consumption has grown faster than our production.  But allowing drilling and nuclear power plants would have had a much greater effect in reducing our oil imports than the increased fuel efficiency standards and increased government investments in renewable energy.>

"Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stop-gap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close.

<This is a big statement from someone who was telling us not too long ago to check the pressure on our tires.  "Stop-gap" and "not a long-term solution" are strange things to say when the democratic argument against drilling used to be that we wouldn't get a return for ten years.  But in the near future, (say twenty to twenty-five years) drilling and nuclear power will provide much more power than non-nuclear renewables.  But of course we should do both.  The choice is not one-or-the-other.  The choice is, for each alternative, whether or not we do it.  Let's say yes to all.>

"As President, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology,

<"Invest."  Good word.  It points out the lie in the democrats' energy programs.  Private industry will invest private money in anything viable.  If we need government money, it is because it is not viable.  Energy companies are investing in clean coal.  We don't need additional government investment.>

 and find ways to safely harness nuclear power.

<In splitting this up, I hope you didn't lose the subject here.  The subject (look back to verify if you don't believe me) was "I".  As in, "I will find ways to safely harness nuclear power."  On the one hand, I do not think working as a community organizer qualified someone as Nuclear Engineer.  At least Carter really was a nuclear engineer.  I suppose this is related in some way to the new internet he will invent (see above about the 23 million new jobs).  What this probably means however, is that unless we can find ways to harness nuclear power safely, he won't allow it.  This means he won't allow it.  It already is safe.  It is safer now that 30 years ago. Chernobyl was a Soviet design run by Soviet workers.  Three Mile Island, catastrophic as it may have been, killed not one person, gave no one cancer, and released very little radiation.  It already is safe.  If he is going to wait until it is safer, he is telegraphing that he will not allow nuclear power.  He just doesn't want to admit that he will not allow nuclear power.>

I'll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America.

<Market forces are taking care of this.  They are doing this out of self-preservation.  Did you notice that the typical hybrid is $5000 more than the comparable all-gas car? And yet there are waitinglists for many of these cars.  We do need the batteries to be built here, but, in time, any help that Obama provides will be referred to as corporate welfare.  In any case, he doesn't seem to talk about which fuel-efficient cars he talks about.  Hybrids really only provide marginally greater fuel efficiency.  Electric cars do not help if we are using fossil fuels to generate the electricity we will need to charge them.  Fuel cell cars sound great, but they are leashed to their hydrogen generating stations. And, also, we use fossil fuels to generate the electricity we need to produce the hydrogen.  As I said, if there were viable solutions on the horizon, we would not need government help.  In the meantime, I do not trust Obama or congress (or McCain or Mitt, for that matter) to decide which technologies will bear fruit and which won't.>

I'll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars.

<More government giveaways.  More middle class tax increase.  People's hard work will achieve the American dream, but Obama wants to tell them which cars to buy.>

 And I'll invest $150 billion over the next decade

<In other words, a middle class tax increase>

in affordable, renewable sources of energy

<If it was affordable, private industry would be aboard quicker that Obama can say "change">

- wind power and solar power

<both of which require more power now than we get by running them--but, of course, Obama has the engineering expertise to know which to promote and which to abandon>

and the next generation of biofuels;

<I hope, "the next generation."  What happened to the last generation?  We needed more energy to produce and to bring these fuels to market than what we saved by using these biofuels--not to mention the problems caused by taking food out of the food markets to use them as fuel.>

an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can't ever be outsourced."

<I keep repeating myself.  If it is viable, it will happen without Obama's help and it will lead to new industries and five million new jobs.  If it needs his help the industry will be tiny with few reliable jobs.>

***

"We are the party of Roosevelt.

<Like we need a New Deal giveaway>

 We are the party of Kennedy.

<Except Kennedy said we would pay any price and bear any burden in defense of freedom.  Kennedy knew that tax cuts increased revenues.  Kennedy was a democrat.  Obama is a democrat.  But Obama is no Kennedy>

So don't tell me that Democrats won't defend this country.

<Democrat won't defend this country.  The legacy of FDR and Kennedy is dead>

 Don't tell me that Democrats won't keep us safe.

<Democrats won't keep us safe.  Does anyone remember the senate majority leader telling us that we had lost the war?  Does anyone remember "Willing suspension of disbelief," or "general betray-us"?>

The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans

<We removed a vicious dictator was defying UN resolutions, corrupting UN sanctions, firing at American fighters and threatening Americans.  We also killed his sons whose greatest accomplishments were the efficiency with which they raped and tortured.  We also have not had another terrorist attack on our soil since 9-11.>

 -- Democrats and Republicans - have built, and we are to restore that legacy.

<By talking to thugs?  That doesn't work.  That never works.  It didn't work with Hitler and Chamberlain.  It didn't work with Hitler and Stalin.  It didn't work with Arafat and Camp David.  It didn't work with Arafat and Oslo.  It didn't work with George 41 and Hussein ending the first Gulf War.  It didn't work with Clinton and North Korea.  It won't work with the recent agreements  between the current administration and North Korea.  We are always talking, if indirectly.  It never works.  They will agree to what they need to agree to to get the carrot while planning ways to avoid the stick.  There is, indeed, only one word for the Obama legacy.  Appeasement.  We will get burned while we give away all our carrots.>

"As Commander-in-Chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation,

<"Unless there is a country run by a madman dictator where all of the intelligence tells us he is building weapons of mass instruction.  Because, you see I know more than everyone else, so you can trust my judgment."  He forgot to add that.>

but I will only send our troops into harm's way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

<This is Obama speak for "I will never send our troops into harm's way."  In other words, the only response to terrorists we can expect (and terrorist can expect--they know this) is long range ineffective cruise missles attacks and abandoning our military commitments to our allies and protectorates.>

"I will end this war in Iraq responsibly,

<Easy to say NOW. The surge has worked and the extra troops have been removed.  If Obama had had his say, we would have left Iraq before 2007--in a way that could never be called responsible.>

 and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

<The fight is much further along now.  Al Qaeda is emmaciated.  That was Bush.  Thank you, George.  And he would finish the fight as long as he doesn't have to send American troops into harms way.  Of course, not only would he fight in Afghanistan, but follow them into Pakistan--bombing our ally.  All they while he is having a party with our enemies in Iran.>

I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts.

<Sure.  I mean Bill Clinton was a REAL friend of the military.>

But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

<The personal force of Barack Obama's charisma will cause the Iranians to give up their nuclear weapons.  Please.>

 I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism

<losing in Iraq, as Obama wanted to do a year and a half ago, would have really gone a long way toward this.>

and nuclear proliferation;

<with only the sheer power of his charisma>

 poverty and genocide; climate change and disease.

<don't forget migraines and reality television.>

 And I will restore our moral standing so that America is once more the last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future."
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